OT: Handicapping the AI Top 12

foodsthatcan does a better week-by-week analysis of AI than I could, but now there's a top 12, I'll give my handicap on how the contestants stack up:

Amanda Overmyer
Shtick: Rocker Chick
Advantages: Likeable and when given the right song, she brings rock 'n roll energy to her performances. Unlike Rocker Chicks in the past, she has the combo of talent and authenticity. And she's Southern, so she gets Dixie Factor hit points.
Disadvantages: God help her if there's an ABBA week. If there's a genre not suited to her I don't think she has the chops to turn the song to her advantage. And I think some may find her style grating after a while.

Brooke White
Shtick: Sunny D-Lite!
Advantages: Pretty but in an accessible way, I can see her acquiring a big fan base that will help her carry on through much of the competition. She's a good singer and she has the potential to pull off some memorable performances.
Disadvantages: She doesn't have Carly's power voice or David Archuleta's perfect tone and Jason Castro out bohos her by several hit points.

Carly Smithson
Shtick: The Irish Girl Who Could
Advantages: Well, I have to support the local girl by way of Ireland, don't I? A pretty girl with a power voice, she has the potential to build a fan base and given the right song, can reach those Celine-esque notes. The chick to beat in this competition.
Disadvantages: Carly is far from invicible. She needs to take care with what songs she chooses without getting to be too boring or safe. She also has a two-fold problem with her image. First, it's well-known that she once had and lost a big record deal. For some AI fans, this just makes her a ringer, although she's not the only AI competitor to ever have a record deal in the past. The other problem is that she looks like Diablo Cody but sings power ballads. Is she trying to look cool for the kids or is she just going along with what she thinks will win on the show?

Chikeze
Shtick: Just like Reuben, only thinner!
Advantages: He's got a fun personality and excels with old-fashioned soul.
Disadvantages: Just doesn't have the juice to go all of the way.

David Archuleta
Shtick: (Stolen from foodsthatcan) Baby Groban
Advantages: If I was one of the other Idols, I would be plotting Archuleta's murder. Charming, sweet-natured, and cute as pie, he will have the all-important tween and grandma votes locked up. (12-year-old girls and 55-year-old women are AI's Superdelegates.) But that's not all. His voice has a clear, perfect tone, a trait very few singers have. So what if he's only 17? As Jordin Sparks showed last year, age is just a number.
Disadvantages: Don't get too cocky kid, or you'll find yourself floating home.

David Cook
Shtick: Rocker Dude
Advantages: This year's Chris Daughtry, he has the potential to go far. He's not as in-your-face as Amanda and is a little bit more multifaceted than she is.
Disadvantages: Chris Daughtry was easily the most talented guy in Season 5 but he ended up coming in fourth place. If he couldn't do it, I'm not really sure if David can. Rock Dude swagger can be a turnoff for some voters.

David Hernandez
Shtick: Mr. Versatility
Advantages: He's a pretty good singer with both up-tempo pop and with ballads. He's versatile enough to survive Chinese Folk Song Week or whatever crazy thing they come up with.
Disadvantages: The Gay Stripper bit wasn't enough to keep him out of the Top 12, but it sure won't cruise him to victory either. He probably doesn't have the gas to go all of the way.

Jason Castro
Shtick: Boho Guy
Advantages: He's another multi-talented contestant able to bring a sensitive touch to his songs. Even with his dreadlocks, he seems like a Nice Boy, which is all-important to getting those votes from the AI Superdelegates. Bonus points for the Dixie Factor (Texas). Of all of the competitors, he's probably the only guy who could possibly upset David Archuleta.
Disadvantage: Even he may not be able to beat David Archuleta.

Kristy Lee Cook
Shtick: I Look Like Keri Russell
Advantages: If Simon keeps dogging her, the contrarians out there might help her stay in longer than she should. She's a decent singer, better than some who have made the Top 12 before, and her personality is decidedly inoffensive.
Disadvantages: The competition is so tight this year, even being a hair off in performing or in personality from the rest is enough to send you packing. If Simon wasn't pointing out that she's forgettable, she truly would be forgettable. I don't think she will make it very far.

Michael Johns
Shtick: G'day, Mate!
Advantages: American chicks LOVE hunky Aussie guys. That alone will keep Michael in a while.
Disadvantages: A strong singer in his audition, his voice hasn't held up as well in actual competition. No Dixie Factor points since we can tell he's not really from Georgia.

Ramiele Malubay
Shtick: The Little Girl With The Big Voice
Advantages: Cute as can be and she can crank out some good performances. As Jasmine proved a few years ago, don't count out the power of the Filipino-American vote to keep you afloat for a while.
Disadvantages: She often lacks the confidence needed to keep putting out memorable performances.

Syesha Mercado
Shtick: Boho Girl
Advantages: Attractive and a fairly good singer with some power notes.
Disadvantages: There's nothing particularly special about her. Far better R&B singers (Makela for instance) didn't win, so I'm not expecting her to either. I think she'll be among the first to skeddaddle.